Methodology
Above everything else: the model is also fed by off-market sales. A large share of the cars covered here never appear in a public catalogue — they change hands privately between collectors, through dealers acting discreetly, or before a car is ever advertised. Those transactions are collected, verified where possible and weighted into both current values and projections. It is the reason a figure here can sit above or below what the visible auction record alone would suggest.
Current market value is set from observed auction results, private trades and dealer inventory across the preceding twelve months, weighted toward the most recent transactions and adjusted for condition, mileage and specification.
Projections at one, three, five and ten years are produced by an internal model that reads each variant as a traded asset: production volume, regional footprint, ownership turnover, off-market transaction flow, and the direction of the wider collector market. Confidence declines with horizon length and is stated on every asset page.
Why Provenance is more accurate
Most valuation sites rely almost entirely on public auction results. That works for ordinary cars, but for the limited-production models tracked here it misses the real market. Public auctions are only a fraction of what changes hands, and a sale from six months or a year ago can be a poor guide to what the car is worth today.
Because these cars are produced in such small numbers, we track every transaction we can identify for each variant — whether it sells at a public auction, through a dealer, or privately off-market. Off-market sales are often the largest and most current transactions for the rarest cars, and they are ignored by auction-only models. We collect, verify and weight them into our latest valuation so the figure reflects the market as it is right now, not just the last time a car appeared under the lights.
The result is a valuation that is continuously grounded in the most recent activity, including the deals that never make a headline.
Coverage is primarily focused on the United States market at present: transactions, regional footprint and demand signals are weighted to US buyers and US-registered cars. Other markets will be added as coverage expands.
Every figure describes a representative example of the variant. An individual car can sit above or below it depending on mileage, the number of previous owners and the completeness of its service history.
Rarity key points are maintained per variant and record production counts, regional footprint and the specification details that separate one variant from its siblings.
Projections are estimates, not guarantees. Nothing on this site is investment advice.